Trump's potential tariffs could benefit the U.K. by sparing it from severe trade penalties, unlike the EU and China, due to a tighter trade balance focused on services. Analysts suggest that the U.K. might negotiate concessions or exemptions, raising hopes for a bilateral trade deal, despite skepticism about political will on both sides. The changing political landscape in the U.K. complicates negotiations, particularly regarding food standards and EU relations.
According to UBS, Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a 10% decline in the S&P 500, with projections of 5,200 points in 2025 and 5,650 in 2026. The analysis suggests significant negative impacts on global markets, particularly for foreign stocks, while a Republican victory may favor corporate tax cuts and deregulation. In contrast, a Democratic win could benefit European and emerging market stocks by reducing trade policy risks.
UBS forecasts that Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a 10% decline in the S&P 500 next year, with the index projected to end at 5,200. The analysis suggests significant negative impacts on global stocks, particularly in Europe and China, while a Republican sweep in the upcoming election may provide a more favorable outlook for U.S. equities.
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